Warren Buffett knows a thing or two about oil stocks. And while his track record hasn't been perfect, betting alongside one of the best investors of all time is a wise strategy for making money over the long term.
Lately, Buffett has been loading up on one oil stock in particular. Last quarter, he increased his position in it by more than 7 million shares. So if you're on the hunt for oil stocks with attractive long-term upside, this one is worth considering.
Why does Buffett love this oil company?
As of its most recent filings, Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate Buffett runs, owns roughly $16 billion worth of Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) stock. It's the sixth-largest position in Berkshire's equity portfolio.
Buffett first opened a position in Occidental back in 2022, and since then, he has steadily added to it. And while he has denied any interest in buying out the company outright, Berkshire Hathaway did receive regulatory permission to acquire up to 50% of its shares. Its current stake hovers just below 30%, though it holds warrants that could boost that stake.
What does Buffett like so much about Occidental? We don't have to wonder. After he first bought shares of the company, Buffett revealed in an interview what he found so attractive about the business. After reading the company's annual report, he was hooked.
"I read every word, and said this is exactly what I would be doing," he said during a CNBC interview, adding that Occidental Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub appears to be "running the company the right way."
None of this should be surprising. Buffett has long espoused the importance of good management. Especially in resource extraction, where capital allocation and efficiency are paramount, a skilled leadership team that takes a long-term approach goes a long way. Occidental, for instance, has an average breakeven production point for oil of less than $60 per barrel. That compares favorably to prevailing oil prices of about $70 per barrel. It also benefits from chemicals and midstream businesses that generate free cash flows under a variety of market conditions.
As a result, Occidental has the flexibility to allocate capital to wherever it is most productive. In recent years, it has made multibillion-dollar acquisitions, repurchased billions of dollars worth of its stock, and distributed a healthy dividend that at current share prices yields about 1.7%.
But there's another reason Buffett is likely drawn to this business -- the upside it can enjoy if oil prices rise.
Don't invest in Occidental if you're not bullish on oil
At the end of the day, no matter how well Occidental is run, the company's results will still depend heavily on what happens to oil prices over the long term. The company recently raised $9.1 billion in new debt to acquire oil and natural gas producer CrownRock, a deal that greatly expanded Occidental's production profile, but also added properties with production decline rates of 30% or more. For the acquisition to make sense, oil prices will need to stay at or above their current levels. If oil prices decline, the value of the acquisition -- as well as the rest of Occidental's portfolio -- will suffer.
The good news, however, is that investors are likely to profit if oil prices improve. For every $1 per barrel that crude oil prices rise, for instance, Occidental management predicts that its annualized cash flow would increase by as much as $260 million. That means a $4 per barrel increase in oil prices could result in more than $1 billion in additional cash flow -- an impressive feat considering that its free cash flow during the past 12 months totaled just $6 billion.
Buffett can talk about management, strategy, and capital allocation all he wants, but there's likely only one reason he's invested in Occidental stock: He's bullish on the long-term direction of oil prices, and Occidental has the operating leverage necessary to benefit in that environment while maintaining a balance sheet that can survive weaker conditions, at least for a time. If you're an oil bull, $500 will get you almost 10 shares and you'll be alongside Buffett in betting on Occidental.
Should you invest $1,000 in Occidental Petroleum right now?
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool recommends Occidental Petroleum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
1 No-Brainer Oil Stock to Buy Right Now for Less Than $500 was originally published by The Motley Fool