If you receive Social Security benefits, you may have your calendars marked for mid-October, as that's when the Social Security Administration typically releases the COLA (Cost-of-Living Adjustment) for the following year. The SSA makes an annual adjustment to account for inflation in the form of a percentage increase.
The adjustment affects the monthly benefit payments for individuals participating in the Social Security program, including the standard Social Security benefit, but also SSDI, SSI and others. Exactly how much will be added to your monthly check won't be revealed until the official COLA is released, but experts tracking inflation trends have been able to make predictions with impressive accuracy.
The latest prediction points to a lower increase compared to 2024's 3.2%. Below are the latest expert predictions for the 2025 COLA, and we'll continue to provide updates as more are announced, including the official SSA COLA increase that should be released in just a few short weeks.
For more, don't miss the four actions that could cost you your Social Security benefits and how to apply for Social Security Disability insurance.
What is the Social Security COLA?
To keep up with the effects of inflation, Social Security recipients usually receive an annual cost-of-living adjustment with their January check. The adjustment is based on the average change over time in the prices paid for consumer goods and services and is determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor. The Social Security Administration sets the COLA in the third quarter of each year.
Which government benefits make adjustments using COLA?
Social Security isn't the only government benefit that is affected by the COLA. Social Security Disability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income, Medicare and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (including food stamps and other programs all use COLA to account for inflation when setting benefits.
What the experts predict the 2025 COLA will be
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for senior citizens, have forecast a lower COLA for 2025 versus 2024's 3.2%. The League's latest predictions points to a COLA of 2.5%, which is slightly lower than its August prediction of 2.57%.
If the 2025 COLA is 2.5%, it would translate to a $48 increase in the monthly benefit payment, bringing the average monthly total to $1,968. The League also points out that while the latest prediction is lower than the past few years, 2.5% is still within the 20-year historical average of 2.6%.
The adjustment is closely watched by seniors because the annual COLA change is designed to help them keep up with rising costs. And while the annual COLA increase has been as high as 8.7% in recent years, some say it's not enough to cover inflation. According to a Senior Citizens League survey, 69% of respondents said their household costs rose faster than the COLA last year, with costs for food and housing leading the way.
COLA Increases Year Over Year
| Year | Increase over previous year |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
Note: The Social Security Administration normally announces the adjustment the second week of October. The new rate goes into effect the following January.
Keep in mind that these are estimates that can change every month based on the previous month's inflation rate, and though they tend to be somewhat in line with the official rate, they're not always spot on.
For more, find out why SSI recipients aren't getting a check this month and what to do if you were overpaid on your monthly benefit check.