pwshub.com

90% Chance Bitcoin Hits New High By March 2025: Economist

Bitcoin price prediction

In a forecast issued via X on Friday, Timothy Peterson, a respected network economist and prominent author in the field of crypto analytics, predicted a near-certain rise of the Bitcoin price in the upcoming 8 months. “There’s a 90% chance Bitcoin will reach a new ATH before March 2025,” Peterson proclaimed.

Peterson, known for his works including “Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value,” bases his forecast on the analytical framework detailed in his research paper titled “Lowest Price Forward: Why Bitcoin’s Price is Never Looking Back.” This paper, first published in 2019 and subsequently revised, introduces an innovative approach to understanding the Bitcoin price trajectory by focusing on its historical lowest prices, referred to as the “Never Look Back Price” (NLB). This NLB marks the last instance Bitcoin was traded at a particular price point, after which it never declined to that level again.

The methodology Peterson employs involves plotting these NLB data points on a lognormal scale adjusted by what he calls a “square root time” scale. This unconventional metric facilitates a deeper insight into the long-term growth patterns of Bitcoin, comparing them effectively with the diffusion processes observed in technology adoption across other domains.

Bitcoin Adoption Is Key

Central to Peterson’s analysis is Metcalfe’s Law, which he elaborates as “the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of its users.” By applying this principle to Bitcoin, Peterson posits that as the digital currency’s user base expands, its intrinsic value is expected to increase exponentially. The paper details the use of a “square root time” model to align traditional time-value money concepts with the non-linear growth rates typical in network economics, presenting a compelling case for Bitcoin’s future valuation trajectories.

Bitcoin NLB
Bitcoin NLB | Source: X @nsquaredvalue

Peterson’s approach notably incorporates elements of conservative financial analysis by emphasizing the lowest historical prices of Bitcoin. “By focusing on the lowest price, the analysis inherently adopts a conservative stance, underestimating rather than overestimating value,” Peterson notes, which helps in “minimizing the risk of overvaluation and ensures that predictions do not overly rely on optimistic scenarios which might not materialize.”

In his paper, Peterson also addresses potential anomalies and market manipulations, which can distort price perceptions. By focusing on the NLB, the analysis filters out such distortions, offering a purer view of Bitcoin’s value appreciation unaffected by short-term speculative pressures or external shocks such as the COVID-induced market anomalies of 2021.

The prediction of a new all-time high before March 2025 reflects a broader sentiment of confidence in the sustained growth of the Bitcoin network by Peterson. As adoption curves continue to rise and network effects further entrench the value of Bitcoin, the forecast is not merely speculative but grounded in quantifiable and observed historical trends.

Peterson concludes, “As long as adoption continues, Bitcoin’s value — represented by its NLB price — will go up. If adoption is hindered, then the price will stagnate or drop.”

At press time, BTC traded at $58,192.

Bitcoin price
BTC struggles to overcome the 200-day EMA (blue), 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

Source: newsbtc.com

Related stories
2 weeks ago - The balance of risks has turned to the unemployment rate, which has been steadily increasing since bottoming last year at 3.4%.
1 month ago - Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency on the market, has again taken the lead in the crypto landscape. However, this time it comes with a sense of caution among investors triggered by macroeconomic data, particularly from the United...
1 week ago - A widely followed crypto analyst says that investors likely can’t expect Bitcoin (BTC) to spark a rally for at least a few more months. In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 802,000 YouTube subscribers that...
1 week ago - The exaggerated fears of a Mt. Gox Bitcoin sell-off highlight the market's sensitivity to perceived threats, despite minimal actual impact. The post Mt. Gox Bitcoin sell-off fears are exaggerated: CoinShares study appeared first on Crypto...
3 days ago - One leading crypto strategist thinks that a dog-themed Solana (SOL)-based memecoin is headed to much lower prices. In a new video, pseudonymous analyst Credible Crypto tells his 55,500 YouTube subscribers that dogwifhat (WIF) likely has...
Other stories
33 minutes ago - Mining stocks have exploded 29% this month, but they now trade fairly high compared to the BTC they’re likely to mine.
1 hour ago - The North Korean hacking outfit, Lazarus Group, could be responsible for the cyber attack on a Japanese crypto exchange in May that led to the loss of Bitcoin (BTC) worth hundreds of millions of dollars, according to an on-chain sleuth....
1 hour ago - Former US President Donald J. Trump has chosen a Bitcoiner to be his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 election. At yesterday’s Republican National Convention, Trump, the Republican nominee, announced the pro-crypto politician...
1 hour ago - An analyst who nailed the top of Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2021 bull market believes altcoins have found their bottom. Pseudonymous trader Pentoshi shares with his 801,500 followers on the social media platform X a chart showing the total crypto...
1 hour ago - Within the ever-evolving realm of cryptocurrencies, the liquidity of the Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem is now soaring to an astounding 800 million. This spike highlights the active trading and increasing investor interest in the well-loved...