Adobe Forecasts a Record $241 Billion Holiday Shopping Season

It's time to start writing out your holiday shopping list. The second coming of Amazon Prime Day arrives in October and the Adobe Analytics holiday shopping report just arrived. Adobe expects a retail frenzy to deliver a record $240.8 billion shopping season this year, handily topping last year's $222.1 billion figure. Here's why Adobe is predicting big bucks, and how you can stretch your own dollars.

Holiday shopping trends for 2024

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Adobe's forecast covers the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. The company's analytics department crunched US data from over a trillion visits to retail sites across 18 product categories, including toys, electronics and apparel. There's good news for anyone wanting to upgrade their electronics, appliances or sporting goods. Adobe expects "strong discounts" of up to 30% off list prices as retailers compete for business from price-conscious buyers. This could be a good time to treat yourself to a new phone or new earbuds.

Start warming up your fingertips. The way consumers shop will see a shift this season. 

"Shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, contributing a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% year over year," Adobe said in a statement. "This would represent a 53.2% share of online spend this season (versus desktop shopping)." 

The TikTok effect is real. Influencers will hold sway over many shoppers, particularly members of Gen Z. 

"In 2024, Adobe's data showed that influencers are converting shoppers (individuals making a purchase after seeing influencer content) 10 times more than social media overall," the company said. "This is expected to hold strong during the holiday season."

Best times to shop this holiday season

If shopping at Amazon is on your holiday to-do list, we have the inside scoop on the best Prime Big Deal Day bargains. Get in on early deals or shop the main event on Oct. 8-9. Adobe expects Amazon's price cuts to push other retailers into offering discounts. If you miss that window, there will still be plenty of opportunities for good buys in November and December.

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Adobe recommends keeping an eye on Cyber Week — a period that covers Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday — as "the best time to shop for bargain hunters." 

Timing matters. You might want to schedule some shopping time around your turkey party. The company advises shopping for toys, appliances, furniture and sporting goods on Thanksgiving Day itself. 

Look for TV bargains on Black Friday, computers on that Saturday and electronics and apparel on Cyber Monday. Whew. That's a lot to keep track of. Perhaps you should turn your shopping list into a shopping spreadsheet.

Hot holiday gift picks for 2024

The days of Cabbage Patch Kid madness are long gone, but there will always be hot holiday items in demand as gifts. Adobe has looked into its analytics-driven crystal ball and divined what'll be popular for 2024. Lego sets will remain hot commodities. Also, look for the Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, Fisher-Price Little People, slime kits and MGA's miniverse collectibles to be popular purchases.  Check out CNET's picks for the best toys for kids.

Gamers will be eyeing Madden NFL 25 and NBA 2k25 on the sports side, while the latest Diablo and Call of Duty games will please action fans. Naturally, Apple's and Google's newest phones in various flavors of iPhone 16 and Pixel 9 should be top sellers. 

If Adobe's forecast comes true, it'll be a bumper holiday retail season. With some smart shopping, you can participate in the party without burning up your wallet.