Asian Stocks Kick Off Big BOJ, Fed Week With Gains: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Asian shares tracked gains on Wall Street to rise on Monday, heading into a week of major central bank decisions and big tech earnings releases.

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Stocks rose in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea. The upbeat tone came after US equities increased Friday amid bets that looming interest rate cuts will help fuel corporate earnings. US stock futures gained Monday.

Monetary policy decisions in Japan, the US and the UK are in focus this week after global markets were ravaged last week by a rally in the yen on bets the Bank of Japan may hike its key rate. A raft of earnings including Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc and Microsoft Corp. will also be parsed for clues about the health of the world’s largest economy.

Spurred by wagers on a potential rate hike in Japan, the yen erased earlier losses against the dollar and advanced against all its Group of 10 peers. Treasury 10-year yields declined two basis points to 4.17%.

“Watch for the trifecta of central bank policy decisions, namely the FOMC which is likely to remain static but hint at cutting rates soon,” Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. analysts wrote. The BOJ is likely to announce quantitative tightening, while the Bank of England “is tipped to enact its first rate cut since 2020.”

The Fed is likely to signal its plans to cut in September at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they say will kick off reductions each quarter through 2025. Money markets are fully pricing a September move, with a chance of two more by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

“While the July FOMC meeting is likely too soon to initiate the cut, it is not too early to begin preparations for a rate reduction in September,” Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients.

Just hours before the Fed’s decision, the Bank of Japan is expected to release details of plans to cut monthly bond purchases at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, while most economists also see the risk of a rate hike. The yen climbed 2.4% against the dollar last week as traders priced a more than two-thirds chance of a 10 basis point hike, causing a selloff in risk-sensitive developed and emerging market currencies and helping send the Nikkei 225 Index into a technical correction.

“Pricing in the derivatives market warns that the failure of the BOJ to raise rates could be more destabilizing than a rate hike itself,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, wrote in a note to clients. “The failure to hike rates will likely spark yen sales.”

Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese factory activity data is due this week, providing further insight into a surprise People’s Bank of China rate cut to boost a flailing economy. Australian inflation data will also be keenly awaited as investors and analysts debate whether the nation’s central bank will hike its key rate as early as next week.

Oil steadied near a six-week low ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting this week, with analysts divided over whether the group will proceed with plans to boost supplies next quarter. While the coalition is seeing to restore supplies it’s withheld from the market for two years in a bid to prop up prices, sputtering economic growth in key consumer China, and new oil supplies from across the Americas, threaten to derail the plans.

Tensions in the Middle East also showed little sign of abating as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested the country could intervene on behalf of Palestinians, possibly with military support. Israel attacked Hezbollah on Sunday and threatened further retaliation for a rocket strike, though signaled an openness to a proposed Gaza truce that could also calm the second and more combustible front with Lebanon.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 10:32 a.m. Tokyo time
Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 2.6%
Japan’s Topix rose 2.3%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.8%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1%
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.6%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0867
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 153.43 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2611 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $68,814.24
Ether rose 1% to $3,291.73

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.17%
Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.26%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $77.07 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,394.23 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Matthew Burgess.

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