(Bloomberg) — Options traders are increasing bets that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will reach a record high of $80,000 by the end of November no matter who wins the US presidential election.
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The implied volatility for Bitcoin options coming due around the Nov. 5 election day is elevated, with the wagers skewed toward call options that give the buyer the right to buy the cryptocurrency at new highs.
“I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome,” said David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX. “Our analysis shows that options activity surrounding the upcoming elections exhibits a notable topside-heavy bias.”
Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump is avowedly pro-crypto, so much so that Bitcoin is viewed as a so-called Trump trade. Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to support a regulatory framework for the industry. That contrasts with a crackdown on the sector under the Biden administration. Non-political factors such as further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen contributing to the optimism.
Testing $70,000
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March amid optimism about demand for dedicated exchange-traded funds that launched in the US this year. The bull run subsequently moderated.
The largest cryptocurrency came close to $70,000 at the start of the week before dropping back. The token, which has jumped about 60% this year, changed hands at $67,100 as of 6:03 a.m. in London on Wednesday.
The put-to-call ratio is trending lower toward the end of the year, with more traders buying call options than puts, according to data compiled by the largest crypto options exchange Deribit.
“We see traders buy calls near 68k and puts near 66k, in other words, many continuously position and reposition for a breakout for either end,” said Yev Feldman, co-founder at SwapGlobal, which provides derivatives such as swaps and options, to the US digital-asset investors. “There is limited reason to collapse downwards after the election, so up makes more sense.”
The open interest, which is the total amount of outstanding contracts, for the call contracts expiring on Nov. 29 is concentrated around $80,000 with the second most popular strike price at $70,000. The open interest for the calls expiring on Dec. 27 is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike price of the calls expiring on Nov. 8 is at $75,000, the data shows.