Bitcoin (BTC) may experience increased volatility in the coming days, driven by speculation surrounding another Chinese fiscal stimulus announcement and the expiration of BTC options worth $1.1 billion.
Chinese Stimulus Measures To Help Bitcoin?
According to the State Council Information Office, China’s Finance Minister, Lan Fo’an, is expected to provide details on upcoming fiscal stimulus measures during a press conference on Saturday. These measures aim to stimulate economic activity in the country.
On September 24, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut interest rates on existing mortgages by 0.5% and lowered reserve requirement ratios for banks to boost market liquidity.
The global crypto market is increasingly paying attention to China’s stimulus plans, as enhanced liquidity could positively impact the prices of digital assets like BTC.
While the announcement is anticipated, confirmation of another round of fiscal measures, especially if they exceed market expectations, could significantly boost risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
In addition, if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to cut key interest rates further, it could increase investor appetite for riskier assets, including digital currencies known for their volatility.
Currently, prediction markets are speculating at least another 50 basis points (bps) cut in interest rates by the end of the year. Such a move would increase global liquidity and help BTC avoid a capitulation that could cause its price to crash into the high $40k range.
BTC Options Expiry Could Trigger Price Volatility
Another factor that could impact Bitcoin’s price volatility is the $1.1 billion worth of 18,000 BTC options set to expire on October 11. At press time, the put-call ratio is 0.91, indicating a slight tilt toward put options.
With Bitcoin hovering around $60,000, the chances of reaching the “max pain” price of $62,000 are growing. For those who are uninitiated, “max pain” refers to the price level where the most options traders are likely to incur losses.
While Bitcoin has recently benefited from global interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election in November have made it difficult to predict BTC’s future price movement.
Despite the challenges above, some trading firms and crypto analysts are confident about the resiliency of digital assets and the potential for a Q4 2024 crypto rally.
For instance, crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s swift recovery following the Iranian offensive against Israel indicated its strong demand among investors.
Similarly, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan outlined three major factors that could help the BTC price “melt-up” to a new all-time-high (ATH) of close to $80,000 in Q4 2024. BTC trades at $62,086 at press time, up 2.7% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com