Historic low volatility on Bitcoin suggests a major market move is near.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands are at historic tight levels, indicating a likely major market move.
- Past tight Bollinger Band periods have preceded significant bull runs.
Bitcoin is poised for a major price movement as its Bollinger Bands are showing one of the tightest formations in history. When the bands are at their tightest level, often referred to as a “Bollinger Squeeze,” it indicates a period of low volatility, potentially setting the stage for a powerful price breakout.
“A huge move is coming,” technical analyst Tony Severino said in a recent post. He noted that Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands, an indicator used to assess price volatility and determine trend direction, are “among the three tightest instances in history” on a 2-week timeframe.
Historically, this contraction has led to substantial price changes in Bitcoin.
A similar pattern was observed in April 2016, when the Bollinger Bands tightened significantly for the first time. After this period, Bitcoin prices began to rise dramatically over the following months, marking the beginning of a bullish trend.
Another critical instance occurred in July 2023, where the Bollinger Bands again reached extreme tightness. Similar to April 2016, this tightening preceded a major price surge.
While tightening bands signal a potential for a big move, it doesn’t predict the direction of that move. The outcome could be either a major uptrend or a severe downturn. For example, a similar pattern observed in 2018 led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has rallied upward after tight band conditions seven out of nine times.
Bitcoin whales accumulate coins at a historic rate
As Crypto Briefing previously reported, Bitcoin whales have amassed 670,000 BTC, the highest whale holdings ever recorded. The huge accumulation has historically been followed by major price rallies.
While whale accumulation is a positive sign, the current sideways trend suggests that a major price move may not be imminent. If Bitcoin fails to reach new highs by late November, it could indicate challenges in the ongoing bull cycle.
Bitcoin recently dipped below $65,500 following reports of a criminal investigation into Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin.
The Wall Street Journal, which broke the news, said that federal prosecutors in Manhattan are looking into Tether’s involvement in facilitating drug trafficking, terrorism financing, and hacking activities.
Tether has firmly denied all allegations. Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, labeled the accusations as “unequivocally false” and criticized the report for publishing what he described as “old noise.”
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, also contributed to market volatility. On October 26, Israel announced direct strikes against Iran in retaliation for a massive missile barrage launched by Iran on October 1.
Bitcoin’s price is vulnerable to geopolitical turmoil, often experiencing swift declines followed by periods of consolidation or recovery. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at around $66,800, down 1.3% over the last 24 hours, per CoinGecko.
