Bitcoin Won't Break $65,000 Without Big News or Policy Shift, says Analyst

Analysts argue that Bitcoin (BTC) breaking beyond the $65,000 level would require a significant policy change or a major news event, despite recent positive macroeconomic indicators and increased institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Research firm 10x Research anticipates that while the recent rally could extend slightly, it will likely encounter resistance around the $65,000 mark.

"We anticipate that this recent rally could extend slightly but will likely encounter resistance around the $65,000 level. Achieving a more substantial surge would require a significant policy shift or major news event," the firm wrote.

The macroeconomic backdrop appears supportive, with Federal Reserve minutes from last month’s meeting (and released yesterday) revealing a dovish tone.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin OTC desk balances for miners have surged to a two-year high.

Over the past three months, these balances have increased by more than 70%, rising from 215,000 BTC in June to 368,000 BTC in August.

This substantial increase suggests significant selling activity among miners, which historically has been associated with declines in Bitcoin prices.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, according to the updated 13-F filings for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Coinbase's market roundup released last week.

Notable new holders include Goldman Sachs (GS) at $412 million and Morgan Stanley (MS) at $188 million, both likely holding shares on behalf of clients through their private banking and wealth management arms, Coinbase wrote.

The U.S. crypto ETFs saw net inflows of $2.4 billion during the second quarter, although the total assets under management (AUM) of spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped from $59.3 billion to $51.8 billion, primarily due to BTC price decline from $70,700 to $60,300.

The proportion of institutional holders categorized as "investment advisors" has seen a marked increase, rising from 29.8% to 36.6% of total institutional holdings, Coinbase noted.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.