In a recent memo shared with clients, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan emphasized several factors that could cause Bitcoin (BTC) to “melt-up” to $80,000 in the last quarter of 2024.
Factors To Propel Bitcoin To $80,000
Hougan highlighted three essential conditions that could push BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in 2024. First, he pointed to November’s upcoming U.S. presidential elections, which could influence BTC’s future price trajectory.
According to Hougan, anything other than a Democratic sweep would benefit the top cryptocurrency by market cap.
In the memo, Hougan explained that while many view the election as a binary choice – with Republican candidate Donald Trump favorable for the crypto industry and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris seen as detrimental – the reality on the Democratic side is more nuanced. He said:
The Democratic Party has disparate views on crypto, from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) “Anti-Crypto Army” to Representative Ritchie Torres’ (D-N.Y.) deep support. The problem of the past four years is that the Warren wing has controlled policy and agency appointments, and that has created a hostile environment for the sector.
Hougan expressed confidence in the Republicans, stating that a win for them would “undoubtedly” be positive for crypto. However, he also referenced a recent comment by Democrat Maxine Waters, who said that “crypto is inevitable,” suggesting that Democrats may become more open to digital assets.
Second, Hougan brought attention to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts. On September 18, the Fed lowered key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), sparking a crypto rally. Further, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision to inject economic stimulus into the Chinese economy gave more fuel to digital assets to propel.
Hougan noted that the market expects another 50 bps rate cut from the Fed before year-end, along with additional Chinese fiscal stimulus. The crypto market could see a strong Q4 2024 rally if both occur.
Finally, Hougan mentioned that a period with no major surprises would support BTC’s potential rally to $80,000. He concluded that negative surprises, such as a significant crypto exchange hack, new lawsuits, or the release of previously locked coins could derail this momentum.
Key Ingredient For The Rip To $100,000 BTC
Hougan also stated that growing pro-crypto sentiment would be necessary for BTC to reach the ambitious $100,000 target in the coming months.
He recalled the famous “DeFi summer” of 2020 as an example and envisions a similar market-wide shift toward crypto, driven by the rising use of stablecoins, high-throughput blockchains, and innovation in passive yield solutions.
In related news, CEO of crypto mining firm CleanSpark, Zach Bradford, recently opined that Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000 in the next 18 months given the right conditions.
That being said, recent geopolitical escalations in the Middle East can adversely impact risk-on assets such as stocks and crypto in the short term. BTC trades at $61,999 at press time, down 1.4% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com