Polymarket's role in election forecasting grows as Bloomberg adopts its data.
Bloomberg Terminal on display at Bloomberg L.P. Photo by Travis Wise.
Key Takeaways
- Bloomberg Terminal now includes Polymarket's real-time election odds.
- Polymarket's trading volume approached $450 million in August.
Financial data and news service Bloomberg is incorporating election odds data from crypto betting platform Polymarket into its Terminal service, signaling growing institutional interest in blockchain-based prediction markets.
Michael McDonough, Bloomberg’s chief economist for financial products, announced the integration on August 29. The move allows Bloomberg Terminal users to view Polymarket’s real-time US presidential election odds alongside data from other prediction markets and polling services.
As the world’s leading financial data platform with approximately 350,000 subscribers globally, Bloomberg’s inclusion of Polymarket data represents a significant milestone for crypto prediction markets. The Terminal controls roughly one-third of the market share for financial data services.
Polymarket, built on the Polygon blockchain network, has emerged as a popular platform for tracking US election odds. The protocol allows users to bet on various event outcomes using smart contracts for transparent trading and payouts. August trading volume on Polymarket is approaching $450 million, with nearly $760 million wagered on the November 2024 presidential election outcome.
Current Polymarket odds show Republican candidate Donald Trump with a slight edge at 50% compared to 48% for Democrat Kamala Harris. The platform’s bettors accurately predicted Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit from the presidential race in August, with odds surging from 8% to over 90% ahead of his withdrawal announcement.
Earlier this month, Polymarket partnered with Perplexity AI to offer AI-driven event summaries and predictions on outcomes like elections and market trends. Crypto Briefing also covered how Polymarket has seen a surge in trading as the unpredictable 2024 US presidential election drew closer, pushing bets over $300 million. In a recent defense, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that Polymarket and other prediction market platforms offer a “social epistemic tool” for a mass user base.
While Polymarket faces competition from rivals like Solana-based Drift Protocol’s BET platform, Bloomberg’s integration underscores the growing importance of crypto prediction markets for analyzing political trends.