Tesla is due to unveil a new fully autonomous vehicle Thursday that is designed to provide a robot taxi service — no human driver required. But the splashy reveal follows a decade of faulty predictions by CEO Elon Musk that a driverless Tesla is just around the corner.
The event at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, Calif., is pivotal for the company, which faces increased competition from established automakers and Chinese manufacturers. Musk has staked Tesla’s future on self-driving technology, saying in an earnings call this summer that “the value of Tesla, overwhelmingly, is autonomy.”
Musk has a history of technological feats, includingreusable rockets and speedy internet service from space. But the CEO’s record of overpromises about autonomous driving has many customers, analysts and investors skeptical about whether a Tesla robotaxi fleet will flood the roads anytime soon.
Here’s a look at Musk’s previous claims about Tesla’s progress on autonomous driving — and how his bold vision has yet to pan out. Musk and Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.
The promise
Musk told Fortune magazine in December 2015 that Tesla was just two years away from achieving full autonomy, though he said it might take longer for regulators to approve it.
The reality
Nearly nine years later, Tesla vehicles on the road still rely on their human drivers. The company has driver assistance features with ambitious branding, called Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), but Tesla says the person behind the wheel must always be fully alert and ready to take over.
Musk’s statements on self-driving and the company’s marketing of Autopilot and FSD have drawn numerous probesinto whether he and Tesla have overstated the technology’s capabilities, including from the U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Last year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ordered Tesla’s largest recall after an investigation found that controls on Autopilot’s steering function “may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse” in certain circumstances.
In a January regulatory filing, Tesla said it “regularly” receives requests from regulators and governmental authorities, including the Justice Department and SEC. The company said it is cooperating with the requests and “to our knowledge no government agency in any ongoing investigation has concluded that any wrongdoing occurred.”
The promise
Musk claimed in June 2016 at a conference hosted by Recode that Tesla vehicles could drive themselves more safely than a person while discussing the future of highway driving.
The reality
Eight years later, regulators still have not approved Tesla’s consumer vehicles for fully autonomous driving and several lawsuits have pushed back on the company’s autonomy claims. A class-action lawsuit in 2017 said Autopilot “essentially unusable and demonstrably dangerous.” In 2018, Tesla settled the case for $5 million.
The company also settled a case brought over a 2018 crash days before the trial was due to start earlier this year, for an undisclosed sum.
The promise
Musk tweeted in October 2016 the the same day Tesla released a video showing one of its vehicles navigating roads near its then-headquarters, with the message: “The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.”
The reality
The company said in a court document regarding a 2018 crash that the video was an “aspirational” demonstration of what the car could one day do — rather than documentation of what it was currently capable of.
The video has been cited in numerous wrongful death lawsuits that allege Tesla has misled customers on the capabilities of its cars. In one case, a Tesla engineer testified that a team specifically mapped in advance the route the car would take in the video.
The promise
Musk said in April 2019 during a company investor day that the company would have a fleet of robotaxis on the road shortly.
The reality
Five years later, Tesla has not launched an autonomous taxi service or even publicly shown a robotaxi vehicle. The company is behind rivals such as Alphabet-owned Waymo, which is operating a driverless ride-hailing service using modified electric SUVs in major cities including San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix.
Tesla’s robotaxi is widely expected to eschew normal features on a car, such as a steering wheel and gas pedal. That would require the company to obtain an exemption from the NHTSA. As of Oct. 4, the company has still not applied for a permit, according to the agency.
The promise
Musk tweeted in May 2020 that Tesla would raise the price tag of its Full Self-Driving upgrade as it got closer to regulatory approval for autonomous driving, and eventually the software would be potentially worth more than $100,000.
The reality
Musk’s post was part of a thread in which he encouraged people to buy a Tesla online because prices would soon rise for FSD, its most advanced driver assistance technology, which then cost about $7,000. The cost of FSD did briefly rise, reaching $15,000 in 2022, but has fallen since and now usually costs $99 per month or $8,000 — far less than $100,000.
The feature still requires full driver responsibility at all times.
The promise
Musk said in an April 2024 post on X that he would unveil a Tesla robotaxi in early August.
The reality
Musk announced this date shortly after Reuters reported that Tesla had scrapped production of a significantly cheaper vehicle. Musk said a few months later that the robotaxi event was delayed, confirming an earlier report by Bloomberg News. Tesla stock fell about 8 percent after the delay was reported, and the company subsequently rescheduled it.
“It has consistently been behind plan on getting a full self-driving vehicle,” said Steve Westly, a former Tesla board member and founder and managing partner of venture fund the Westly Group. He said that he would be “astounded” if Thursday’s event sees the company show off anything more than a “snazzy demo.”
The promise
Musk said on a July 2024 earnings call that regulatory approval for Tesla’s robotaxi wasn’t a concern for him because regulators would be “morally obligated” to approve the vehicle if it proved to be safer than a human driver. According to NHTSA, however, all companies looking to operate and sell a “noncompliant vehicle” — like the kind Musk is expected to propose without a steering wheel or pedal — “must apply for and receive an exemption from NHTSA prior to operations on public roads.”
The reality
To date, NHTSA has granted only one general exemption for a fully autonomous vehicle to Nuro, a low-speed delivery robot. It took the company over a year to receive. The regulatory approvals needed to deploy a robotaxi are steep and could be a major hurdle for Musk in achieving his vision.
The billionaire also has a history of blazing through boundaries that have held other companies back. Tesla could be about to trigger a huge shift in the transportation industry. But if shareholders are left disappointed — once again — doubts about the company’s future could grow.
About this story
Faiz Siddiqui contributed to this report.
Illustration by the Washington Post; Elizabeth Frantz For The Washington Post; Getty Images; Getty Images for The Met Museum/Vogue
Editing by Tom Simonite, Karly Domb Sadof and Betty Chavarria.