Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal is updating his macro outlook, forecasting that a weaker dollar triggers rallies for gold and risk assets.
Addressing his 1 million followers on the social media platform X, the Real Vision founder says that the Nasdaq (NDX) has most likely finished correcting after bouncing off of a major support level.
“The NDX has probably completed its healthy correction…”
Pal notes that since at least 1964, the stock market has tended to outperform in the years leading up to the US presidential elections.
Looking at Bitcoin, the investor says,
“Bitcoin is ready to soon break the giant cup and handle and head into the Banana Zone…”
A cup and handle is a technical price pattern traditionally viewed as a bullish setup for continuation. The ‘Banana Zone’ is how Pal refers to parabolic price action in crypto assets.
The investor believes that gold is trading within a large ascending channel, potentially heading back to its upper range near the $2,500 level based on his chart.
“Gold should see its next leg higher soon too…”
According to Pal, the last thing that would “ease financial condition further” would be a weaker US dollar, which he believes is likely.
He shares a chart of the US dollar index (DXY) which pits the dollar against a weighted basket of major foreign fiat currencies, suggesting that DXY is trading inside a wedge pattern with the potential to break to the downside.
Says Pal,
“This confluence of events maybe take a little more time to play out, or could happen with the FOMC. Who knows… but good times lie ahead.
Enjoy Macro Summer.”