FPL predictions: Which 'feast or famine' player is worth a punt?

An early season title race showpiece awaits Premier League fans in Gameweek 5 as perennial champions Manchester City take on Arsenal at the Etihad on Sunday. 

Irresistible force Erling Haaland has a ridiculous eight goals over his last three league games but meets an immovable object in Arsenal's defence, who dug deep to earn a vital 1-0 victory over Tottenham last time out in the Premier League.

Given City's clash with the Gunners will be one of their toughest tests of the season on paper, Gameweek 5 offers FPL managers an opportunity to bet against the Norwegian - as scary as that may sound - by placing the captaincy armband on the likes of Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min or Cole Palmer.

Meanwhile, there are several red and yellow flags to take care of, with popular assets Alexander Isak, Joao Pedro and Yoane Wissa all doubts - or worse - ahead of Saturday's 11am deadline.

Mail Sport's prediction panel, with help from the FPL experts over at Fantasy Football Hub, gives its verdict on the best players to own from each fixture as well as tipping every single full-time result. 

West Ham vs Chelsea

Abdul Rehman (FPL Salah), Fantasy Football Hub expert

This London Derby is usually a high scoring affair. In the last six league meetings between the two there have been 20 goals with Chelsea running out 5-0 winners in the latest match.

It’s a really tough game to call in terms of who will win but given the attacking players both sides possess I think we will see goals.

For West Ham, Mohamed Kudus (£6.4m) has looked lively but hasn't anything to show for it just yet, and Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) has been ticking along nicely with a goal and two assists.

If the Hammers are to get anything here it will very likely be one or both of them involved in some way or another.

Despite Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea being the away side I would put them as slight favourites.

With so many midfielders at their disposal it’s a bit of a minefield in terms of who will start barring Cole Palmer (£10.6m). He will no doubt start and play the full game or close to it. Palmer has been left out of Chelsea’s Conference League squad too which means more minutes in the league. He is no doubt their best asset and will be the one pulling the strings.

However I really fancy Nicolas Jackson (£7.6m) for this fixture. The last three goals West Ham have conceded have been from centre forwards and the Senegalese has had a good start to the season with two goals and an assist. Jackson should also be good for minutes with him being the only real number 9 at the club.

Prediction: 2-2 draw 

Aston Villa vs Wolves

Aadam Patel, Sports Reporter and Content Creator 

Jhon Duran (£6.1m) is the man at the moment. Regardless of whether or not he starts on Saturday, the Aston Villa forward has three Premier League goals in four appearances off the bench and is well worth it.

That’s not to rule out Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), who himself has had a solid start to the campaign with two goals, one assist and a total of 22 points across four matches but on the streak that Duran on, expect Unai Emery to give the Colombian even more time on the pitch.

Wolves have had a tough run of fixtures but there’s plenty of points in their ranks and after watching Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.5m) cause havoc against Newcastle, the Norwegian forward could prove to be an inspired pick. 

A word too for Mario Lemina (£5.0m), who has delivered attacking returns in each of the last two games.

Prediction: Aston Villa to win 2-0 

Fulham vs Newcastle

Lewis Browning, Sports Reporter 

As Mail Sport’s Craig Hope exclusively revealed, Alexander Isak (£8.4m) is a doubt for this weekend’s game with a different injury to one that led to his half time withdrawal against Wolves. Newcastle are hopeful he can start, however, but, with Manchester City up next too, I’d be looking to move him on if you can.

In defence, Tino Livramento (£4.5m) and Lewis Hall (£4.4m) are popular picks for Newcastle but haven’t picked up any attacking returns yet and their places in the starting XI remain at risk. I’d be looking to move off them too - as feels the common theme with any Newcastle assets right now.

There are a number of popular Fulham assets too, with Emile Smith Rowe (£5.7m) and Antonee Robinson (£4.7m) serving my own team well in recent weeks. I’d probably look to try and bench Robinson this week if you can, but Smith Rowe is a perfectly acceptable starter.

Then there’s the issue of Rodrigo Muniz (6.5m). After a fine end to last season, he’s yet to score this term and appears to have lost his place to Raul Jimenez (5.4m), who started and scored last week against West Ham. Muniz also started in the Carabao Cup in midweek, so it’s sell, sell, sell. Jamie Vardy is my preferred alternative.

Prediction: Newcastle to win 2-1

Southampton vs Ipswich

Jian Batra, Fantasy Football Hub expert

Two promoted sides meet each other, but the managers of their respective clubs have displayed very different approaches, hence why this one is interesting to interpret.

Russell Martin has persisted with a bold and progressive possession-based approach. However, with the greatest respect, without the quality of the centre-backs in particular to execute a system like this, they have certainly suffered.

Kieran McKenna on the other hand has impressed me with his humility above all, but also his versatility and practicality. The willingness to accommodate for the opposition has served him well.

So it’s for that reason, alongside Ipswich’s transitional threat in Liam Delap (£5.5m) and Omari Giraud-Hutchinson (£5.4m), that I see them winning. I expect both could do well, alongside the flying full-back Leif Davis (£4.5m).

Until Martin tweaks the system to see Ben Brereton Diaz (£5.4m) stay inside more, I don’t really see any options from Southampton. They have quite a bit of attacking depth, so xMins for their offensive players will be an issue.

Tyler Dibling (£4.5m) looked good against Manchester United, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up an assist.

Prediction: Ipswich to win 2-1 

Tottenham vs Brentford

Sami Mokbel, Chief Football Reporter

Ange Postecoglou is not under any immediate pressure despite Tottenham’s indifferent start to the season, but he will want to kick start his side’s campaign against Brentford. 

Wilson Odobert picked up an injury in the victory over Coventry in midweek and is expected to miss the game though there is hope Yves Bissouma will be available after a knock. 

Expect Dominic Solanke (£7.5m) to start in attack as the £65million summer signing looks to get off the mark for his new club. As for Brentford, they will have to do without in-form forward Yoane Wissa (£6.1m), who misses two months with an ankle injury suffered against Manchester City last weekend. 

Thomas Frank’s side will rely on Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m) to carry his side’s goal threat without Wissa and Ivan Toney - who has left for Saudi Arabia - and therefore he's the Bees player I would target ahead of Gameweek 5.

Prediction: 1-1 draw 

Leicester vs Everton

Lewis Steele, Merseyside football reporter 

It's a six-pointer despite the fact we are only in Gameweek 5. Everton are desperate for their first points of the season after four straight defeats, following going 2-0 up for two successive matches and losing.

One thing to note from those matches, though, is the amount of chances the Toffees have created. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m) looks the best pick from an Everton perspective. With two goals and one assist this season, he looks sharp up top for Sean Dyche’s men, who are being let down by poor defending at the other end.

The No 9 missed several big chances to score again against Aston Villa last weekend and could look to make amends here.

As for Leicester, Jamie Vardy (£5.7m) looks in fine fettle despite his age with a goal against Crystal Palace in last week’s 2-2 draw. Both of these defences are poor so I would strongly advise against selecting anyone - Everton also have a mounting injury crisis and Dyche had to carry a piece of paper with him to the press conference to remind him of who was out. But that means there could be goals…

Prediction: 2-2 draw 

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Matthew Lambert, Tennis reporter

Despite his blank last week Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) is comfortably the best captaincy option for this gameweek, with Haaland facing Arsenal at home. FPL managers with Erling Haaland but no Salah (such as myself) therefore face an interesting dilemma – is it worth bringing in the Egyptian king, potentially even selling Haaland to do so?

As crazy as that latter notion sounds after 8 goals in 3 games it could be worth it, especially for those who are planning to wildcard in GW6. With doubts over the fitness of Isak and Saka after early subs, those two could potentially offer a route into a Haaland-plus-Salah structure.

Back to the game itself, Bournemouth have been impressive this season, particularly going forward, so this does not look as plumb a fixture for Liverpool defenders as it appeared at the start of the season.

The Cherries’ attackers could offer some decent value this season and one to keep an eye on is Justin Kluivert (£5.4m). Andoni Iraola said after the game that Evanilson and Kluivert were the two designated penalty takers and after the former missed from the spot against Chelsea, Kluivert could get a look in soon. 

If the minutes are there and he has a decent chance of taking a pen, he looks great value and could be the pick over his more popular team-mate Antoine Semenyo.

Good luck for the gameweek.

Prediction: Liverpool to win 2-1 

Crystal Palace vs Man United

Ben Willcocks, Senior Sports Reporter

It's fair to say both Crystal Palace and Manchester United have underperformed in terms of FPL at the start of the 2024-25 campaign, with Eberechi Eze (£6.9m) and Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) each proving a frustrating asset so far.

Red Devils talisman Fernandes has only one assist to show for his 2.7 xGI (expected goal involvement) over the first four gameweeks, while Eze has one goal from 2.1 xGI. Despite dodging returns so far, the metric shows they are getting into the right areas and flirting with a double-digit haul.

The Eagles' defence has also been bitterly disappointing and, given they are facing a team who shipped seven past Barnsley in midweek, there's every chance they concede again when the two face off at Selhurst Park on Saturday. I'd put my faith in both sides scoring in this one, and thus neither defence would interest me from an FPL perspective.

As owners have already learned the hard way, Marcus Rashford(£6.9m) is a feast or famine player when it comes to FPL and has already shown what he is capable of with a 205-point campaign in 2022-23. 

Whether he replicates those heights again remains to be seen, but with three goals across his last two matches in all competitions, he appears to be in a purple patch of goal-scoring form. He'd be my pick for the most points in this one.

Prediction: Man United to win 2-1 

Brighton vs Nottingham Forest

Wes Prickett (FPL Heisenberg), Fantasy Football Hub expert

This is a tough game to call, one that could swing either way. I’m going with the Seagulls to edge it with the benefit of home advantage.

From an FPL point of view, they tend to spread the attacking points around. If I was to pick two this week to shine it would be Karou Mitoma (£6.7m) and Joao Pedro (£5.7m) – the latter should be fine after returning to training this week.

If you need a cheap nailed on defender then Brighton can provide value with the likes of Lewis Dunk (£4.6m) and Joel Veltman (£4.5m) who are both available at affordable prices. Brighton are looking much better defensively this season too.

Chris Wood (£6.1m) is still my FPL pick from Forest; I tipped him preseason and he’s provided great value so far this season. 

I’m backing him to net at the Amex and the Kiwi will be a differential too, as he’s only selected by around 7 per cent of FPL managers.

Prediction: Brighton to win 2-1 

Man City vs Arsenal

James Sharpe, Mail Sport football writer and co-host of the Fantasy Island podcast

Could I really be thinking about selling Erling Haaland?

Nine goals in four games, back-to-back hat-tricks and only a width of a post away from turning his brace last time out against Brentford into a historic treble treble.

Haaland (£15.2m) is even predicted to score 7.4 points this weekend in the Fantasy Football Hub predictor, second only to Mohammed Salah.

But that’s why I was considering it. For someone, like me, without the Liverpool talisman and who plans to wildcard in Gameweek 6, I could sell Haaland for his fixture against an elite Arsenal defence, bring in Salah as captain for his game against Bournemouth at Anfield, and then buy the Man City striker back on Wildcard next week.

That was my plan until Mail Sport broke the news that Newcastle striker Alexander Isak was a major doubt for the weekend. If he’s out, I have just enough cash to drop him down to Jamie Vardy and swap Bukayo Saka for Salah.

Again, I’d bring Saka back on wildcard for Arsenal’s tasty fixture run.

But even that’s a risk. Saka has returned in every game so far, with a goal and four assists, and remains the Gunners’ main man. And with Martin Odegaard (£8.3m) injured, Saka is definitely on penalties.

Other than Haaland, there’s no one in the City team I’d consider. There’s just too much rotation risk and their best defensive option Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m) hasn’t been as attacking as last season and they still concede sloppy goals.

Even bargain buy Rico Lewis (£4.7m) was hooked at half-time against Brentford. So, it’s Haaland or no one.

Like the last two meetings between these two sides, I expect it to be a tightly-fought affair with few goals.

Prediction: 1-1 draw

FPL Salah, FPL Heisenberg and FPL Jian Batra are all Fantasy Football Hub contributors and have joined Mail Sport's expert panel to kickstart the FPL season.

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