Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is anticipating several weeks of good performance for the stock market following this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
In a new interview on CNBC, Lee says that while investors are cautious about markets due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election, economic data is nonetheless leaning in favor of risk assets.
The veteran investor predicts that after the FOMC meeting – which is expected to conclude with at least a 0.25 basis point rate cut – the markets will continue to “trade well” for multiple weeks afterward.
“I think if viewers are sort of confused, I think that’s what the next eight weeks are going to be like until election day.
I think it’s a very challenging period because no one can have conviction until they really know who’s in the White House.
But there are some positive supports coming into play and [this] week is the Fed meeting. We know the Fed is going to make some cuts and with the inflation data being supportive and the labor markets needing some support, I think it’s going to give the markets some confidence.
So I think we do kind of trade well into that meeting and maybe even the week or two after.”
Lee also says that historically, markets for risk assets not only do well after rate cuts when not in recession, but also after presidential elections. The strategist believes that the markets should still rally no matter who wins the election in November.
“I think in the near term, we’re losing visibility and when you don’t have visibility, people get scared and sit on their hands.
But over the next twelve months, I think investors should be pretty confident. When the Fed has cut rates while in a soft landing or no landing, the win ratio, or markets higher six, nine, 12 months later is almost 100%.
And we also know post-election markets almost always rally so the November-December looks pretty good. I think the policies of both candidates are good enough for markets to do well next year, so I think we might have turbulence now, but it looks pretty good after that.”
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