Summary
Two recent inflation reports indicated that overall pricing pressures continue their downward trek. But both also confirmed that inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target. Let's take a deeper dive into the Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to the latest CPI report, the overall inflation rate in September of 2.4% was lower than the prior month's 2.5%. That good news was offset a bit by a higher reading in the monthly core CPI rate, which excludes the impact of food and energy and rose 3.3% in the past year (up from 3.2% a month ago). What's propping up core CPI? Transportation Services (+8.5% YOY) and Shelter (+4.7%), which have prices that don't typically fall sharply. In contrast, prices for Gasoline and New and Used Cars are actually lower year over year. The other inflation report was the Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI measures pricing trends farther up the supply chain, at the manufacturing level. Here, we also saw a decline in the rate of inflation. For example, the PPI final demand annual rate through September was 1.8%, compared to 1.9% in August. We expect pricing pressures to continue easing as the housing market cools, supplies of new vehicles are replenished, and the price of oil stays below $90 per barrel (current price is around $74). The Federal Reserve lif
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