Investors on Edge Before Nvidia Earnings, US Data: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- With Nvidia Corp. earnings just a day away and a heavy slate of US economic data scheduled for later in the week, there was little movement in markets on Tuesday.

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US equity futures and the dollar were little changed, while Treasury yields inched up. The stakes are high ahead of Nvidia, especially after an earnings season that showed disappointing results for other “Magnificent Seven” megacaps. The upcoming reports on US economic growth, prices, personal spending and jobs are adding to the wait-and-see mood.

The heft of Nvidia, which has the second-biggest weighting in the S&P 500 after Apple Inc., and its heady valuation mean that it’s susceptible to big swings that could reverberate widely. Pricing in the options market shows that traders see the potential for an almost 10% move in either direction after earnings, which would translate to roughly 160 points in the Nasdaq 100 Index, or a 0.8% move, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nvidia’s “numbers will be good but what matters is the guidance in order to understand if the demand is still healthy,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “If we get bad news, the rotation will be ever stronger as the market is still very heavy on the mega-cap.”

Read: What a September Cut Could Mean for the Economy and the Election

Among individual stocks in US premarket trading, Paramount Global fell after an acquisition contest for the CBS parent ended. The Hersey Co. dropped after Citigroup Inc. cut its recommendation on the stock to sell from neutral. JD.com Inc.’s depository receipts climbed after the Chinese online retailer announced a $5 billion share buyback.

Investors hope the bull market will broaden out of big tech after fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled Friday the central bank will cut rates soon. Other policy makers echoed his dovish tone: Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it’s appropriate to begin cutting rates, while her Richmond counterpart Thomas Barkin said he still saw upside risks for inflation, though he supported “dialing down” policy.

Economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — rising 0.2% in July for a second month. That would pull the three-month annualized rate of so-called core inflation down to 2.1%, a smidgen above the central bank’s 2% goal.

“Of course, the central bank will emphasize that it has not yet made a decision and wrap that in the words ‘data dependent’,” said Volkmar Baur, a strategist at Commerzbank AG. “But 95 percent of what it needs to know for its September meeting should already be available.”

Meanwhile, Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index edged higher, led by miners and carmakers. Trading volumes were low, with activity on most European benchmarks about three-quarters of the average level from the past 30 days.

Ryanair Plc led gains in European airline and travel stocks after CEO Michael O’Leary said a softening in fares experienced between April and June has levelled out. Bunzl Plc shares soared after the distribution group raised its full-year profit guidance. Banco Santander SA advanced after announcing a buyback for as much as €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion).

Key events this week:

US Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
Nvidia earnings, Wednesday
Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller speak, Wednesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
US GDP, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Friday
US personal income, spending, PCE; consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 8:29 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%
The MSCI World Index was little changed

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.1155
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3209
The Japanese yen was little changed at 144.57 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 1.8% to $62,324.69
Ether fell 2.5% to $2,623.14

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.85%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.29%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 4.01%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $76.92 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,511.21 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Jan-Patrick Barnert and Tugce Ozsoy.

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