Vaccine makers and analysts alike are still unclear about what a new fall respiratory virus market looks like in a post-pandemic world. But low uptake this season is, so far, in line with expectations.
Fewer COVID-19 and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) vaccines have been administered this year than were administered around the same time last year, according to a note from Jefferies analyst Michael Yee on Friday.
That includes COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA), which have totaled about 2.5 million doses administered weekly as of Oct. 4, up slightly from 2.4 million the week before. Meanwhile, doses of RSV vaccines, which include shots from Pfizer, Moderna, and GSK (GSK), are down 40% year over year.
COVID jabs started strong at the end of August but slowed recently. Wall Street is waiting to see if there is any pickup by the holidays or if they continue to dwindle — which would signal poor sales for the year for both Moderna and Pfizer. There have been roughly 2.5 million prescriptions written for COVID vaccines, with Moderna comprising 1 million and Pfizer at 1.5 million.
Investors have been closely watching vaccine sales in the post-pandemic era to understand if they will continue to contribute significantly to manufacturers' bottom lines and at what level they will bottom out.
Moderna has faced the most scrutiny as it pivots away from being a single-product company, with two vaccines on the market.
But Jefferies noted that Moderna's vaccine market share is "immaterial" for RSV vaccines, as it holds less than 1% of the market. And for the COVID market, its share is about 40%, which is less than the 48% it enjoyed last year.
Moderna was the first company to prove the mRNA technology worked during the pandemic. It recorded nearly $38 billion in sales from the COVID vaccine in 2021 and 2022 before a decline to just $6.8 billion last year. This is the company's first RSV season, which lasts from September through April and typically peaks by February.
The RSV market was expected to be weaker this year than last year, which was the first season with shots on the market.
Yee wrote that the firm had predicted RSV jabs would be about 15%-20% lower than in 2023 — which had $2 billion in sales and about 10 million shots administered. The prediction for 2024 was for around 8 million shots.
But six weeks into the season, there have only been 900,000 prescriptions so far, compared to 1.5 million in the same period last year, representing a 40% year-over-year decline.
Investors will be waiting to see if the three companies shift their 2024 outlook in upcoming earnings calls.
"There is some debate that as we enter the second year of the endemic we will see lower covid jabs in this season too, which we do expect based off commentary on demand," Yee wrote. "We also saw MRNA share lower 2025 guidance and co is alluding to assumptions around lower vaccination rates in 2025."
Moderna reduced its 2024 outlook from $4 billion in sales to between $3 billion and $3.5 billion. Pfizer, meanwhile, raised its outlook earlier this year after several cost-cutting moves. It now expects revenue in the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion, up from $58.5 billion to $61.5 billion — with a combined $8.5 billion expected from the COVID vaccine and COVID treatment Paxlovid.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee on most social media platforms @AnjKhem.
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