There is a growing consensus among Premier League executives that the outcome of Manchester City's Financial Fair Play hearing will result in a points deduction so severe that it would relegate the club from the top tier of English football.
The perennial champions are defending 115 separate alleged breaches of financial rules, with it emerging earlier this week that the 10-week hearing is scheduled to begin next month.
City have been accused of financial impropriety spanning nine years from 2009 and the sternest punishment if found guilty is relegation. Points deductions and fines are also potential penalties.
Although, Manchester City - while declining to comment - firmly deny any wrongdoing and remain confident in their ability to retain Premier League status as they face an independent inquiry.
However, one Premier League executive offers a more pessimistic outlook, suggesting that the league's consensus points toward a potential 70-80 point deduction— enough to ensure City's relegation.
There is a growing consensus among Premier League executives that the outcome of City's hearing will result in a points deduction so severe that it would relegate the club
The perennial champions are defending 115 separate alleged breaches of financial rules, with it emerging earlier this week that the 10-week hearing is scheduled to begin next month
City have launched separate legal action against the Premier League over financial rules
According to The Times, one Premier League club executive said: 'The collective view I've heard is that an appropriate sanction would have to be a points deduction so substantial — we are talking here between 70 and 80 points — that it guarantees City a season in the Championship.'
The case, which has rocked the football world over the last year, could have far-reaching consequences for both the Manchester-based club and the future of English football.
The charges relate to a range of financial misconduct allegations over a period spanning several years, with accusations including inflating sponsorship revenues and disguising the true source of funding, breaches of the league’s financial fair play (FFP) regulations, and failures to disclose accurate financial information.
City has long denied any wrongdoing, maintaining that they have always acted within the rules and have remained confident throughout the investigation that they will successfully defend their case.
There is even speculation that, depending on the severity of the breaches, the club could face expulsion from the Premier League. However, that remains to be seen
This high-stakes hearing will be held before an independent inquiry, appointed by the Premier League. If found guilty, the potential sanctions could be devastating for the reigning English champions, with punishments ranging from substantial fines to an unprecedented points deduction that could relegate the club from the top flight for the first time since 2002.
There is even speculation that, depending on the severity of the breaches, the club could face expulsion from the Premier League. However, that remains to be seen.
City, under manager Pep Guardiola, have declined to comment publicly on the proceedings, choosing instead to focus on their on-pitch performances as they begin their title defence at Chelsea on Sunday.
The case against City follows a prolonged period of scrutiny, dating back to when UEFA initially investigated the club for similar breaches of FFP regulations.
They were under investigation between 2019 and 2023, resulting in the 2022-2023 treble winners being banned from UEFA competitions for two seasons and also received a fine of £26.8million.
While City successfully overturned a two-year European ban at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in 2020, the Premier League's investigation has continued to loom large over the Etihad Stadium.
With legal teams from both the Premier League and Manchester City preparing for what promises to be a contentious and closely-watched hearing, the outcome of this inquiry could set a precedent for how financial rules are enforced in English football moving forward.
For now, the footballing world waits to see if one of its most successful clubs will emerge unscathed or be left reeling from a historic decision that could reshape the landscape of the Premier League.