Mainland China's consumer sector has proven to be resilient amid the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune - including the property crisis, elevated unemployment and weak consumption - as people switch their spending to more affordable goods in an economy where being frugal counts, according to venture capitalist Robert Chang Bin.
"This is what I call the substitution effect," Chang, founder and managing partner of Beijing-based VC firm GenBridge Capital, told the South China Morning Post in a recent interview.
"When people opt out of a major purchase like real estate, which involves millions of yuan, they redirect their spending towards other categories - from hundreds of thousands on cars to tens of thousands on furniture, down to thousands on travel and hundreds on clothing," Chang said. "For Chinese consumer brands, this presents an unexpected opportunity."
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His view reflects how the world's second-largest economy continues to perform well below expectations, as it posted 4.7 per cent growth in the second quarter after recording 5.3 per cent growth in the first quarter.
Robert Chang Bin, founder and managing partner of venture capital firm GenBridge Capital. Photo: GenBridge Capital alt=Robert Chang Bin, founder and managing partner of venture capital firm GenBridge Capital. Photo: GenBridge Capital>
China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 4 per cent year on year in July, according to Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. This deceleration has prompted Ding and various investment banks to predict the country's GDP forecast to fall below Beijing's target of "around 5 per cent" this year.
Data released on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics show that property investment declined 10.2 per cent year on year in the first seven months of 2024, while retail sales eked out a 2.7 per cent increase last month.
While growth has slowed, "we still see vitality driven by shifts in consumption patterns and the vast potential of overseas markets", GenBridge's Chang said.
He pointed out that Chinese brands, from tea beverages to electric vehicles, are showing their innovative capabilities in terms of upgraded offerings or localised products for overseas markets.
Part of GenBridge Capital's portfolio, Guoquan Food operates a chain of ready-to-cook and hotpot ingredients supermarkets on the mainland. It was listed in Hong Kong in November last year. Photo: Shutterstock alt=Part of GenBridge Capital's portfolio, Guoquan Food operates a chain of ready-to-cook and hotpot ingredients supermarkets on the mainland. It was listed in Hong Kong in November last year. Photo: Shutterstock>
Chang's positive view stems from GenBridge's focus on China's consumer sector since the firm was founded in 2016. He previously held positions at Capital Today and JD.com's investment arm.
The VC firm's portfolio includes hotpot ingredient supermarket chain Guoquan Food, premium rice seller Shiyue Daotian and fresh food chain operator Qiandama. While three of GenBridge's portfolio companies went public last year, no new listings are anticipated this year.
"Going public was once the most lucrative exit strategy [for investors], offering not just money but valuable resources," Chang said. "Given the current market climate, alternative methods like equity sales and mergers and acquisitions are becoming more viable, leading to greater efficiency in capital allocation."
Still, the swift development of new mainland consumer brands - powered by savvy marketing and social media - have also resulted in a shorter lifespan for some of these enterprises, according to Chang.
GenBridge is also wrestling with the pressures of fundraising and achieving a return on investment. In the second quarter of last year, the firm closed its second flagship fund at around US$400 million, a smaller amount than what its initial fund raised in 2017.
Chang said it was lucky for the firm to close the fund at that time, securing investments from several Asian industrial companies as limited partners.
His experience mirrors the landscape of China's private equity market, where US dollar funding from global investors is drying up, largely because of escalating geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing. Foreign capital in China's VC sector plunged 60 per cent year on year to US$3.7 billion in 2023, according to research firm Dealogic.
Chang, however, reassures investors of GenBridge's focus: "We invest in chips - the snack - not chips." He also said the firm's plans for a yuan fund are moving forward.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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