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A hot potato: Microsoft is warning that Russia, China, and Iran are carrying out online cyber and influence efforts ahead of the US election, and there are signs that these campaigns will escalate as November 5 draws closer. While Russia is smearing VP Kamala Harris, China is targeting Republicans critical of the country.
Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) writes that malicious foreign influence operations aimed at the US election are evolving. Clint Watts, MTAC General Manager, notes that history has shown how foreign actors' ability to rapidly distribute deceptive content can significantly impact public perception and electoral outcomes. Therefore, voters, government institutions, candidates, and parties must remain vigilant against suspicious online activity in the two days before and after election day. MTAC says it is virtually certain that these actors will ramp up their operations during this time.
Iran, despite escalating tensions with Israel, is running multiple influence operations against varying targets in the US, especially the Trump campaign. It has called on Americans to boycott the elections due to the candidates' support for Israel, and has tried to incite anti-Israeli protests at universities.
Russia, no stranger to accusations of trying to influence US elections, is targeting the Harris-Walz campaign. Its agents continue to create deepfaked videos about the Vice President, one of which shows her making derogatory comments about Trump. Another accuses her of illegal poaching in Zambia, and another video spreads disinformation about Tim Walz. The Walz video gained more than 5 million views on X in the first 24 hours of it being posted.
China's operations have focused on down-ballot Republican candidates and members of Congress that advocate for anti-Chinese policies, such as Rep. Barry Moore, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, and Marco Rubio (who is not currently up for reelection). Chinese agents have used antisemitic messages, pushed accusations of corruption, and promoted opposition candidates.
The increasing use of generative AI in these disinformation campaigns is especially worrying, given how advanced the technology is becoming. MTAC warned in September 2023 that China was using AI to influence US voters with content that focused on politically divisive topics, including gun violence, and denigrated US political figures and symbols (below).
Six months later, MTAC issued a second warning about China's use of generative AI to sow disruption in the United States as the actors continued to refine AI-generated or AI-enhanced content, creating videos, memes, and audio.