US stocks staged a sharp rebound on Friday, snapping a three-day streak of losses.
Encouraging inflation data stoked optimism that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September.
The rotation into small-caps continued, with the Russell 2000 rising more than 1.5%.
US stocks rebounded Friday, helping reverse a streak of losses that dominated most of this week.
With investor confidence starting to waver in the tech-stock bull run, rotations out of the mega-cap sector sent indexes on a three-day decline. On Wednesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst day since 2022, dropping 3.6%.
That changed Friday, as encouraging inflation data injected new life into the rally. June's personal consumption expenditures index aligned with forecasts, boosting investor certainty that interest rates could soon come down.
Headline PCE rose 0.2% from May and 2.6% year-to-year.
"Next week we expect [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell to set the table for future rate cuts, speaking confidently about progress bringing inflation down. Today's PCE report supports this," said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth. "While we don't think he will use the word 'imminent,' we do think he will leave the impression that a September rate cut is likely."
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in September.
Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of one cut that month. The market also forecasts high chances that the Fed will slash rates by up to 75 basis points through December.
Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:
S&P 500: 5,459.10, up 1.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 40,589.34, up 1.6% (654 points)
Nasdaq composite: 17,357.88, up 1%
"The Fed is on track for two cuts this year – one in September and another in December – and as long as the data keeps coming in like it has (e.g. not too hot and not too cold) they have the luxury of keeping rates unchanged next week and proceeding at a 25-basis-point pace every other meeting in the short run," predicted Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.
While some commentators feel the Fed should cut at its policy meeting next week, concerns over a meaningful economic slowdown were diminished on Thursday, with second-quarter GDP data coming in hotter-than-expected.
Next week, investors will be on the lookout for June's jobs report to offer more clues on economic conditions.
Among Friday's notable stock movers, medical device firm Dexcom fell over 40% on disappointing guidance. Meanwhile, the rotation into small-cap stocks continued, sending the Russell 2000 up over 1%.
Here's what else is going on today:
Typical starter homes are worth at least $1 million in a record 237 US cities, Zillow reported.
North Korea's economy ended three-years of stagnation as its arms deal with Russia boosted growth.
Florida homebuyers are backing out in droves as affordability concerns take over.
Famed short-seller Andrew Left falls into regulatory cross-hairs amid accusations of fraud.
In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Oil futures were down. West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped 2.02% to $76.71 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 2.08% to $80.66 a barrel.
Gold gained 0.83% to $2,384.39 an ounce.
The 10-year Treasury yield slid six basis points to 4.19%.
Bitcoin rose 3.15% to $67,852.
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