US stock futures traded mixed on Monday, marking a cautious start to a crucial week dominated by expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in four years.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) rose 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) were little changed after strong weekly wins and inching closer to taking out new record highs. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) slipped 0.2%.
Stocks are searching for a foothold amid rising bets that the Fed will opt for a more drastic 50 basis point cut in its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, at the end of its two-day meeting.
The central bank is almost universally expected to bring in first US rate cut since 2000 — a significant policy shift and an official end to a years-long tightening campaign designed to tamp down inflation.
Read more:Fed predictions for 2024: What experts say about the possibility of a rate cut
That conviction has put investors on edge over how aggressively the Fed will lower rates, whether by 0.5% or 0.25%. An half-point move would aim to protect the labor market and reduce the risk of recession, but would also risk spooking investors by signaling a dire economic outlook.
As of Monday, traders are pricing in a 59% chance of an outsized move, compared with 50% a day ago. The odds of 25 basis point cut stand at 41%, per the CME FedWatch tool.