Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock fell 2.5% Thursday after rallying as much as 9% the day before, continuing its rollercoaster ride of a week as investors swing between optimism over the company’s strong financials and cautiousness over its regulatory risks.
Super Micro is reportedly being investigated by the Department of Justice over allegations of shady business practices outlined in a scathing report by short seller firm Hindenburg Research in late August. That has pressured the stock, which has hovered under $50 per share since then.
This week, SMCI climbed on positive reports from the AI server maker. Super Micro surged 16% Monday after the company released numbers showing strong demand for its products. The stock was up 12% on Thursday from the prior week.
Super Micro makes servers using Nvidia's (NVDA) AI chips for data centers that power artificial intelligence software. The company said it’s shipping servers containing over 100,000 Nvidia GPUs per quarter “for some of the largest AI factories ever built.”
Then on Tuesday, shares of SMCI fell 5% after a promising premarket rally that saw the stock jump as much as 7%. Daniel Newman, CEO of the Futurum Group, said investors’ euphoria over the company’s shipment data faded against the backdrop of Super Micro’s regulatory risk.
“I think one piece of good news hardly undoes multiple months of significant financial and regulatory scrutiny around a company like this,” Newman said.
The Hindenburg report in August accused Super Micro of shoddy accounting, undisclosed relationships between its CEO and companies it does business with, and violations of US export bans. For example, Hindenburg said Super Micro has shipped servers to sanctioned Russian firms through shell companies, some of which were likely used by its military for its war against Ukraine.
The day after Hindenburg released its report, Super Micro shares dropped 20%. The company also delayed filing its annual 10-K report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Super Micro’s woes continued with a Wall Street Journal report of an alleged DOJ probe, which sent shares tumbling in late September.
Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the Hindenburg report contained “false or inaccurate statements” and “misleading presentations of information that we have previously shared publicly.” Liang said the company’s delayed 10-K filing would not affect the company’s fourth quarter financial results, adding that Super Micro would address Hindenburg’s allegations “in due course.”
Super Micro’s stock climb this week displays the tension between its potential as a key player in the AI boom and its regulatory hurdles.
“This is a high-risk reward,” Newman said. “If they get absolved of all of this, there's a very good chance it's going to see a pretty nice move to the upside.” Of the Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg who are covering the stock, seven have a Buy rating on the stock, while 11 maintain a Hold rating. Only one analyst recommends selling the stock.
Analysts see shares rising to $66 over the next 12 months.
The company reported mixed results in its last earnings report. Super Micro’s most recent quarterly revenue of $5.3 billion for the three months ended June 30 barely missed Wall Street’s expectations, but was 143% higher than the prior year. On the other hand, Super Micro earnings per share for the company’s fiscal fourth quarter of $0.63 were far lower than analysts’ consensus forecast of $0.83, according to Bloomberg data.
Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher told investors in a note on Oct. 3 to buy the dip, noting that Super Micro “has been growing sales and earnings much more rapidly than the Tech industry in recent years.” Wall Street expects Super Micro to report revenues of $6.5 billion for the period ended Sept. 30, up 206% from the previous year. The company has not yet confirmed a date for its next earnings release.
“At this point, we are assuming that any accounting irregularities should they exist are minor and can be addressed while requiring re-issued financial documents,” Kelleher said, adding that Super Micro’s recent 10-for-1 stock split on Oct. 1 “broadens the potential investor pool and should be a long-term positive.”
Despite his long-term optimism, Kelleher lowered his 12-month price target for the stock from $100 to $70.
Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.
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