Tesla (TSLA) is poised to deliver third quarter deliveries as early as Wednesday, a result that could push the stock beyond the strong recent gains it has already seen.
Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver around 461,000 electric vehicles globally in the third quarter, with annual delivery estimates coming in at 1.79 million, per Bloomberg. This figure would be a sequential improvement from the second quarter when Tesla delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles; however, it would be below the 466,000 EVs delivered a year ago.
Tesla stock is up over 20% in the past month, fueled by optimism about its upcoming robotaxi event on Oct. 10 and good news coming out of China indicating rising sales there.
A strong third quarter delivery report would also assuage fears of a “notably lower” annual vehicle growth rate, which Tesla warned about after Q1.
Wall Street analysts agree with the narrative of improving sales and, in some cases, have boosted expectations.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised his delivery estimates, and now sees deliveries of 459,000 EVs globally, with a full-year forecast of 1.75 million units. While Potter’s estimate is still slightly below consensus, Potter believes Tesla may report its best quarter ever in China.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy sees deliveries topping 470,000 units in Q3, easily beating estimates. Levy and Barclays cite July data for global EV sales and China sales based on August registrations and production data.
“Our delivery estimate implies volume up ~6% sequentially and up ~8% [year over year] — which would be Tesla's first quarterly result in 2024 with positive [year-over-year] growth,” Levy wrote in a note to clients. “We believe that a beat could drive further strength of the stock into Robotaxi Day, serving as a reminder that at least for now concerns on fundamentals have dissipated.”
Tesla bull Dan Ives at Wedbush predicts that not only will sales improve in Q3 but also that profitability may finally improve after a steep slide over the past year.
“Importantly we believe price cuts are now mostly in the rear view mirror and should remove a margin overhang from the Tesla story which has plagued the name over the past year,” Ives wrote in a note last week. “We believe gross margins should finally start to rebound from these levels with 3Q a big step forward.”
Interestingly, analysts are also starting to model sales for the Cybertruck, which has seen production and sales data start climbing.
S&P Global Mobility data showed that Tesla sold over 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, the most recent month for which the firm has data collected, with year-to-date sales hitting 17,722.
Deutsche Bank predicts the Cybertruck, which is only on sale in the US, will see sales hit 13,500 in the third quarter.
While that figure would only represent 3% of overall sales, it is climbing and, at the margin, could represent the difference between a sales beat or miss for Tesla’s overall deliveries.
Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.
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