In a thread shared with his 538,000 followers on X, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher highlights the vital importance of retail investors to the sustainability of the crypto bull market. To understand the possible return of the crypto bull run, Deutscher believes it is essential to understand what has happened in recent years. Deutscher recalls the substantial rally from March 2020 through November 2021, highlighting the extreme gains made across various altcoins.
Understanding The Crypto Bull Run Dynamics
“From March 2020 until November 2021, the crypto market rallied 2,672%, with many alts pulling 50-100x+ multiples,” Deutscher states, pointing to a period characterized by significant financial stimulus and increased public interest due to global lockdowns. However, the glory days were short-lived, as Deutscher pointed out, marking the peak of the market in November 2021 followed by a steep decline.
The downward spiral was accentuated by the LUNA & UST collapse in May 2022, which not only erased significant market value but also exacerbated the decline across the broader crypto market. “Crypto technically topped in November 2021. But it wasn’t until May 2022 that crypto would be delivered its final death blow: The LUNA & UST collapse,” he explained, illustrating the precariousness of crypto investments during that period.
The aftermath of these events led to a widespread exodus of retail investors, who were either financially devastated or disillusioned by the dramatic downturns. “If you were burnt financially, you left. If you weren’t burnt financially, you still left (price/time capitulation),” Deutscher explains, capturing the deep-seated anxiety that permeated the retail investor base following the market’s collapse.
Despite the challenging environment, 2023 ushered in a new wave of optimism with significant institutional movements, notably BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin spot ETF in June, which was later approved. “On the 16th of June, BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF […] This not only signaled a positive catalyst on the horizon but a paradigm shift in the way BTC was being viewed by major institutions,” Deutscher highlighted, pointing to a critical moment that potentially marked the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin and possibly the broader crypto market.
As of January 2024, the crypto market had seen a surge in Bitcoin prices, reaching new all-time highs following the successful launch of the ETF. “Over $17b has flowed into the BTC spot ETFs so far this year,” Deutscher notes, underscoring the significant impact of institutional investment on Bitcoin’s valuation and the broader market sentiment.
However, Deutscher tempers expectations regarding the altcoin market, which has not seen parallel success. The lack of a similar rally in altcoins is attributed by Deutscher to the new market dynamics introduced by the ETF, which altered traditional liquidity flows and investment patterns. “The primary driver of this cycle has been the BTC ETF. This is vastly different from the last cycle, where the primary driver was macro conditions,” he remarks.
When Will The Bull Run Return?
Looking ahead, Deutscher speculates on the conditions that might entice retail investors to return. He emphasizes the critical role of Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs, suggesting that Bitcoin reaching or surpassing $100,000 could ignite renewed interest across the crypto sector. “Yes, many of the aforementioned issues like altcoin dispersion would still exist, but it would definitely pave over some cracks. A BTC rally = media attention, people front running an altcoin rotation, renewed optimism,” he added.
Deutscher also highlights the natural inclination of humans towards gambling, noting that the thrill of high returns might quickly attract retail investors back to the market if altcoins show sustained rallies. He referenced the Pareto principle to remind followers that significant market gains often occur late in the investment cycle.
“80% of gains in a bull market come in the last 20%, of the move. Retail joins the party late. We simply may just be too early (in terms of cycle duration we comparatively still are), Deutscher states.
Additionally, he points to the potential of emerging technologies in AI, gaming, and decentralized finance (DeFi) to create compelling new use cases for crypto. He suggested that just a few successful applications could drive widespread adoption, fostering a more sustainable interest in the crypto market.
Because of that Deutscher remains optimistic about the return of retail investors. He concludes, “so in conclusion, yes – retail is (mostly) gone. There are valid reasons why, and this cycle is fundamentally different because of them. But it won’t take much for retail to return. And that day may be sooner than you think.”
At press time, BTC traded at $59,650.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com