Shares of gold miner Newmont (NYSE: NEM) fell 14.7% on Thursday after the company reported third-quarter 2024 results. The sell-off may seem strange, given gold prices are still hovering around an all-time high.
Here's what's driving the sell-off in the dividend stock and why there may be better options for investing in gold than mining stocks.
2024 has been a phenomenal year for gold stocks and most mining stocks. In fact, until the recent sell-off, shares of Newmont and the price of gold were both outperforming the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) year to date -- which is impressive considering it has been an excellent year for the broader market. Even after the recent pullback, Newmont stock is still up 19% year to date.
The main issue is that expectations got ahead of reality. In the short term, it can be difficult for gold miners to keep pace with the price of gold because they have to spend more to produce more, and capital spending plans are usually made based on midcycle expectations rather than overextending at the top of a cycle.
Analysts expected Newmont to book $0.86 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS), but it only notched $0.81 in adjusted EPS. Still, Newmont's results were incredibly impressive and included $760 million in free cash flow (FCF). However, third-quarter sales grew 4.6% quarter over quarter compared to a 7.1% increase in costs applicable to sales. Costs outpacing sales growth is never a good sign because it can lead to lower margins and worse-than-expected earnings growth.
Newmont bought back $500 million in stock during the quarter and returned $786 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividend payments -- which was more than the FCF it earned for the quarter. Newmont's dividend payment can vary based on the performance of the business, but it currently sits at $0.25 per share per quarter. Some investors may have preferred Newmont to pay a higher dividend than buy back stock. After all, Newmont's average price paid per share was $53.16 -- which is higher than the closing price of the stock after Thursday's sell-off.
Still, the sell-off in Newmont is probably due more to the stock price getting ahead of itself than poor results. There's a lot to like from Newmont's results and its fourth-quarter guidance. As of Oct. 23, the stock was up over 50% in the past year compared to a 34.3% increase in the price of gold. Newmont had a huge surge in October before the recent sell-off. So, there was a lot of pressure on Newmont to deliver a perfect quarter, which it didn't do.