Bitcoin recent decline has led to a slight pushback in investor confidence and increased anticipation within the crypto community, with many now craving a rally back above $70,000 more than before.
Amid this, a new analysis suggests that although the Bitcoin market could be on the brink of a major breakout, it hinges on a major indicator that concerns new investors.
New Investors Hold the Key
According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Avocado Onchain, new market investors could drive the next significant upward price movement.
The analyst shared these insights on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlighting key data trends that point to a potential price surge.
Avocado Onchain’s analysis focuses on “Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs),” specifically those under six months old. UTXOs represent the amount of cryptocurrency that remains unspent after a transaction, and they can provide valuable insights into market sentiment.
According to the analyst, the decline in UTXOs under six months has stopped and is now leveling off. Currently, only 8.6% of Bitcoin investors are at a loss based on the present price of the cryptocurrency.
In past market cycles, when the decline in UTXOs halted and showed an increase, Bitcoin’s price often surged, marking the beginning of a new bull run.
Bitcoin Historical Patterns And Market Sentiment
The CryptoQuanat analyst further highlighted that the data from previous Bitcoin market cycles reveals a pattern in which the percentage of investors holding losses converged toward zero before significant price increases occurred.
Avocado points out that in those instances, as the number of investors in loss diminished, new investors entered the market in large numbers, driven by rising optimism. This influx of new participants tends to trigger a sharp price rise as new buyers increase demand for Bitcoin and fuel further upward momentum.
For Bitcoin’s price to reach new heights, the analyst suggests that market sentiment must shift more favorably. This positive sentiment is typically fuelled by the entry of new investors who tend to buy in when market conditions are improving.
Avocado also highlights that these new investors often show increased interest when Bitcoin nears or breaks through its previous all-time high, leading to an “explosive influx” of new buyers. If Bitcoin’s current market conditions align with historical patterns, the cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a significant breakout.
The CryptoQuant analyst further notes that while Bitcoin’s price has recently been in a downtrend, this leveling off of UTXO data is a key sign that could indicate a reversal. The analyst noted:
If history repeats itself, the current price of Bitcoin could be seen as being on the verge of an explosive breakout.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView