Crypto analysts are split over whether Bitcoin will see a major sell-off in May 2026, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during U.S. midterm election years.
In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000. In May 2022, it fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before dropping further in June to $20,000.
Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warns the pattern is “perfect” for a repeat, potentially sending Bitcoin to $33,000, despite key pro-crypto legislation and positive sentiment from the Trump administration.
Joao Wedson of Alphractal says a new capitulation phase is likely if Bitcoin stays below $78,000, with bears “showing signs of strength.” Bitcoin was trading near $76,900 at press time, down 5.6% over the past week.
But Jeff Ko of CoinEx cautions that previous crashes were caused by specific shocks-Mt. Gox, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening, Terra/FTX collapses-not the calendar. He says spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act have fundamentally changed market structure. A drop to $33,000 would require a systemic break, not just seasonality.
MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin is consolidating after a 40% run, not signaling new lows. But he warns the $76,000 support level must hold; a loss could trigger further declines.
Trader eyes key support level that must hold. Source: Michaël van de Poppe