Jerome Powell’s planned departure as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, followed by Kevin Warsh’s nomination, has introduced significant monetary policy uncertainty. Historically, Fed chair transitions-Yellen in 2014, Powell in 2018-triggered Bitcoin volatility. The Fed’s decision to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid internal debates on cuts has already sparked a Bitcoin selloff below $75,000. Warsh, known for his hawkish inflation stance, awaits Senate confirmation and has made favorable comments about Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s market prospects for May 2026 show current skepticism about reaching $115,000 (0.1% YES on Polymarket). However, confidence remains high for Bitcoin staying above $66,000 by May 4 (99.8% YES). The outlook for hitting $86,000 on May 2 is also low at 0.1% YES. Key indicators include Warsh’s confirmation process, macroeconomic data, and institutional moves by MicroStrategy or BlackRock.