Bitcoin is facing stiff resistance near the $80,000 mark, pressured by short-term profit-taking and a wave of institutional ETF outflows. The catalyst: escalating tensions between the US and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices higher and stoking a global risk-off mood.
Data shows approximately $4.5 billion in Bitcoin ETF redemptions over five consecutive weeks earlier this year, a clear sign big money is rotating out of volatile assets amid persistent inflation worries and high interest rate expectations. Prediction markets now place only a 3.2% probability of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, and an 8.5% chance by September 30.
Ethereum, however, appears more resilient. The odds of ETH staying above $1,800 through May 3 are pegged at 99.9%. Traders are now watching US-Iran diplomacy, further ETF flows, and any Federal Reserve pivot for the next directional cue.