US recession odds have surged to nearly 50%, raising fresh questions about Bitcoin’s resilience. Moody’s Analytics now estimates a 48.6% chance of a downturn within 12 months, while prediction markets like Kalshi show 36% odds for 2026-the highest since late 2025.
The spike stems from geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, which has disrupted oil markets. Oil prices jumping 50% above their long-term trend-a pattern seen before nearly every US recession in the past 50 years-are fueling inflation fears. A $10-per-barrel rise can push headline inflation up by 0.20% or more.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that prolonged instability could trigger a global recession, even if hostilities subside. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with “extremely oversold” US equities, echoing its behavior during the brief 2020 recession. Back then, BTC crashed alongside stocks in March but soared afterward.
Market analysts note excessive bearish sentiment and oversold technical conditions may set the stage for a short-term relief rally-even amid growing macro risks.
