Bitcoin has surged above $79,000, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapsed, disrupting a critical global oil chokepoint. The move has intensified fears of oil supply disruptions, pushing investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical risk.
Polymarket data reflects the shift: the probability of Bitcoin staying above $66,000 on May 5 now sits at 99.8%. Meanwhile, the chance of Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 on May 3 is just 0.1%.
Investors are watching for further US-Iran developments, institutional moves, and upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve actions as key drivers of Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.