The Israeli Army said it intercepted a shell fired at its forces in southern Lebanon, part of the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah sparked by the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Despite a US-brokered ceasefire, violence continues.
Hezbollah claimed responsibility for targeting an Israeli anti-armor drone near Al-Bayyada. The interception highlights the fragile ceasefire and risk of escalation.
On Polymarket, the probability of an Israeli withdrawal by June 30 fell to 9.5% YES, down from 10%, with the May 31 sub-market at 2.8%. Analysts see the incident reducing the likelihood of a near-term pullout.
Watch for statements from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah leadership, plus US diplomatic moves, for shifts in market sentiment.