Macro expert and former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal says that while negative sentiment across the crypto industry is at an all-time high, its fundamentals remain strong.
In a new interview with co-founder and host of Impact Theory Tom Bilyeu, Pal says investor negativity is higher than he has ever seen it, including during the Great Recession and the Dot.com bubble burst.
11:50: “What we’ve got is peak freakout, because the earthquake happened and everybody’s hypersensitive. I’ve never in my career seen sentiment like this, both in crypto and the stock market. Twitter is so bad. I put up a relatively bullish chart, just marginally bullish, to say maybe the NASDAQ has priced in a big recession. I must have had 100 comments of anger, how dare I suggest [that]?
There’s anger, resentment, fear at this moment of a scale that wasn’t in 2008, wasn’t in 2001. I’ve never seen anything like it.”
But Pal says the crypto space is bullish with widening adoption by institutional investors, noting that big tech is increasingly intertwining with the crypto industry.
18:20 “Has anything changed in the crypto market? Not a thing? Is the technology being utilized? Has Solana just agreed to use their blockchain with Meta for NFTs (non-fungible tokens)? Yes. Are Google working with Solana? Yes. Did DeFi (decentralized finance) fail? No. Does the decentralized financial system idea work? Yes. Are cryptocurrencies being exchanged in a value system on the Internet? Yes. Is the number of people growing in that ecosystem? Not a lot, because it’s stabilized.
But if you look at the past cycle, so the 2017 peak to the low in 2019, we lost about 80% of the active wallet addresses. When I look at it now, we’ve lost about 30% because the adoption keeps rising.”
Pal says investors should take a long-term approach to crypto investing, buying during panic dips and holding onto their assets to see the gains in the future.
19:20: “So it really is a psychological game. And it’s a long-term game. We’re not involved because we can make money over a one-year time or a two-year time. We’re saying, listen, the bet here is if you hold on and if you add at the bottom of the panic cycle and just keep holding and don’t use leverage and just be sensible about what you’re doing and don’t keep checking the market every day, the probability [is] of you coming in at the end of the decade and having manifested your future self in a way that probably might be quite unexpected.”