Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has identified a cluster of nine Polymarket wallets that collectively earned $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on contracts tied to US military operations.
These wallets placed major bets just before key events, including the Feb. 28 attack on Iran, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Four of the wallets each made about $400,000 betting the US would strike Iran on Feb. 28.
All accounts were funded through centralized exchanges in a tight window, with minor losing bets on Feb. 20 that Bubblemaps says likely served to 'avoid attention.'
CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the on-chain trail is 'symptomatic of someone with an unfair informational advantage.' While there is no definitive proof of insider trading, the movement of funds through exchanges and third-party services before funding new Polymarket accounts 'effectively covering their tracks' is 'suspicious,' he noted.
In response, US Senator Adam Schiff recently introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would ban federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts on war, terrorism, assassinations, and individual deaths.
California Governor Gavin Newsom also signed an executive order to curb public servants from insider trading on prediction markets tied to events they can influence.