Former President Donald Trump urged Iran to enter negotiations before it is too late, boosting the odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
The market for a ceasefire by April 30 now stands at 38.5% YES, up from 36% just 24 hours prior. Traders are reacting to the diplomatic signal, with the April 7 market at 8.5% YES and the April 15 market at 18.5% YES.
A decline in the probability of U.S. military action in Iran aligns with Trump's push for dialogue. The cost to move the April 30 market by 5 points is $16,655, indicating moderate liquidity.
The markets suggest increasing confidence in a diplomatic resolution within the next month. Traders will watch for signals from intermediaries such as Oman or Qatar, or from key figures like Senator Marco Rubio or CENTCOM.
This trend reflects a shift from military threat to negotiation, with $1,365,780 in USDC traded across related markets.