Prediction market traders on Polymarket now put the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 55%, after a surprise jump of nine percentage points in a single day. The shift followed the release of final language by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, settling one of the bill's most contentious issues: stablecoin yields.
Under the new text, no crypto firm may pay interest simply for holding stablecoins-a practice critics argued mimicked bank deposits. However, firms can offer rewards tied to "bona fide activities," meaning actual use of crypto platforms or networks.
Coinbase chief legal officer Faryar Shirzad called it a win for consumers. "In the end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters." Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded bluntly: "Mark it up."
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said the final text signals the Senate Banking Committee could schedule a markup as soon as the week of May 11-a significant acceleration for legislation that had stalled for months. Thorn warned banks will likely step up opposition once the markup is on the calendar.
Senator Bernie Moreno expects the bill done by end of May. Senator Cynthia Lummis put it more starkly in April: "It's now or never."