The United Arab Emirates has left OPEC, effective May 2026, as regional tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran escalate. The move comes after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting global oil flows by roughly 8 million barrels a day. The UAE's exit further weakens Saudi-led OPEC's ability to manage production quotas, adding upward pressure on prices.
Markets now price a 100% probability that crude oil will hit $90 a barrel by the end of June. Analysts say the combination of supply disruption and cartel instability supports continued price gains. Key stakeholders, including Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, face growing scrutiny over OPEC's future influence.