Wintermute, the crypto liquidity provider handling $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume, is now providing liquidity on prediction markets. The firm announced Friday it will offer two-sided markets across event contracts on leading venues.
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said prediction markets have the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity of an early-stage one.
"For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity. That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices," he said.
Wintermute says this reduces spreads, supports larger trades, and improves the reliability of market-implied probabilities.
The two leading prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, now see a notional weekly volume of roughly $5.8 billion, with nearly 400,000 active markets and 42.7 million weekly transactions. Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated, holds a 70% market share. Politics and sports dominate betting on both platforms.
