The Department of Justice has concluded its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This development has significantly boosted the odds of Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair, with market predictions now at 79% by May 15, a dramatic increase from 29% just 24 hours prior.
The shift in market sentiment follows the removal of a key obstacle. Senator Thom Tillis had previously placed a hold on Warsh's confirmation, pending the resolution of the DOJ probe. Trading markets now reflect an accelerated timeline for confirmation, with the June 30 market at 97% likelihood.
High trading volume and order book depth on the May 15 confirmation market suggest substantial institutional interest and positioning. A recent 20-point spike in trading was indicative of a significant single transaction.
With Senator Tillis's block lifted, Warsh's confirmation appears probable. The remaining variable is the Senate's scheduling pace. Investors are monitoring upcoming Senate Banking Committee hearing dates and potential endorsements from GOP leadership for further indicators.