Economists now predict just one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. The market for no Fed rate cuts this year is at 41% YES, up from 36% yesterday.
The expectation of limited rate cuts has moved related markets. Traders remain cautious given persistent inflation. The market projecting the Federal Funds Rate at End of 2026 shows increasing odds for a higher rate, consistent with revised inflation forecasts driven by geopolitical tensions and energy costs.
Trading volume on the no-cuts market hit $48,545 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The largest recent move was a 5-point increase in a single day, a sign of strong trader conviction.
The shift in economists’ outlook is a clear signal for traders. This bet requires believing inflation won’t ease significantly this year. Watch for Powell’s statements and FOMC meeting minutes for hints on inflation control.