The US economy continues to impress, with Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index soaring to 63.2, the highest since August 2023. This index, which aggregates actual economic data against analyst predictions, indicates that real data consistently surpasses expectations.
Key contributors to this upswing include retail sales, manufacturing output, employment figures, and factory orders, reflecting a broad-based economic strength.
Historically, the index is volatile but notably remains above 60 in a normalized environment. Earlier in 2023, levels were lower, making this surge especially remarkable.
For investors, while the correlation between the CESI and crypto is indirect, the implications are significant as a hawkish Fed stance could tighten financial conditions, affecting risk assets such as cryptocurrency.