The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chairman. Markets are pricing in virtually no chance of a cut: the probability of a 25 basis point reduction remains at just 0.1%, unchanged over the past week.
The move was widely expected. The Middle East conflict continues to pressure energy prices, keeping inflation elevated and complicating the outlook. The Fed is prioritizing inflation monitoring and labor data over reactive policy changes.
Traders have placed about $11,700 in volume across prediction markets for April rate cuts. It would take just under $2,000 to move the 25 basis point market by five points, but no large orders have shifted the odds. A cut is currently treated as a long shot.
All eyes are now on upcoming employment data, inflation figures, and geopolitical developments-along with the policy direction of Powell’s successor.