The Federal Reserve is preparing for a pivotal FOMC meeting featuring both current Chair Jerome Powell and former Chair Kevin Warsh. This unusual joint appearance comes amid intense political pressure and global economic disruptions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, which has pushed U.S. gas prices above $4 per gallon.
Market pricing indicates a 91.4% probability that Warsh will be confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, while Powell's odds of stepping down by the same date remain low at 1.2% for May 14. The data suggests a significant leadership transition is underway, with Warsh widely expected to take the helm.
The Fed held interest rates steady during its April 2026 meeting, citing supply shocks from the conflict. Analysts now watch for any policy disagreements between Powell and Warsh that could accelerate the timeline.
Key actors including President Trump and the Senate Banking Committee are expected to play decisive roles in the confirmation process. The FOMC meeting minutes and public statements from both leaders will be closely scrutinized for signals of impending change.