The likelihood of Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon has declined following a recent CNN interview with his parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried. Prediction markets now place the odds at just 9% on Kalshi and 11% on Polymarket.
In the interview, Bankman and Fried challenged the fraud conviction, claiming Alameda Research did not misuse customer funds. They argued FTX was solvent and all assets were turned over during bankruptcy.
FTX previously accused the couple of receiving $10 million and a $16.4 million Bahamas property through fraudulent transfers. The lawsuit was dismissed without prejudice in 2025.
Barbara Fried called the prosecution "political," suggesting the Biden administration targeted crypto. She directly appealed to President Trump for clemency, drawing parallels between SBF and Trump’s own legal battles.
Despite lobbying efforts, Senator Cynthia Lummis and media reports indicate Trump is unlikely to grant a pardon. SBF’s recent political post supporting a US strike on Iran drew attention but failed to shift market sentiment.
