The latest US economic data presents a mixed picture, contrasting with President Trump's claims of the "greatest economy ever."
Last year's fourth-quarter GDP growth registered at an annualized 1.4%, a significant deceleration from the prior quarter and below forecasts. For the full year 2025, real GDP grew 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. The federal government shutdown in late 2025 is estimated to have subtracted 1% from Q4 growth.
The job market expansion last year was notably weak, with an average of just 15,000 non-farm payroll jobs added per month in 2025, a sharp decline from the previous year. However, January 2026 saw a brighter figure with 130,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.
Federal employment has shrunk by 10.9% since its peak in October 2024, with an additional 34,000 federal employees leaving payrolls in January 2026 due to administration efforts to cut government jobs.
In a significant development, the Supreme Court struck down most of Trump's tariffs, voiding import taxes that had generated an estimated $129 billion in revenue. In response, President Trump invoked a rarely-used provision to impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, set to last 150 days. This measure comes as the average effective tariff rate, excluding last year, is now at its highest since 1946.
Recent polls indicate that only 39% of Americans approve of President Trump's current handling of the economy, a notable reversal from his position entering the 2024 election.