Gold fell almost 2% on June 23, hitting its lowest level in two weeks as the U.S. dollar rallied and markets sharply repriced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Spot gold traded between $4,067 and $4,124 per ounce, while August futures settled down 1.3% at $4,149.40.
The sell-off was triggered by a hawkish turn from the Fed. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, roughly half of FOMC members now signal a possible rate increase this year. The market-implied probability of a September hike jumped to 69% from 29% just a week earlier. Higher rates boost yields on competing assets like Treasuries, making non-yielding gold less attractive. The dollar index hit its highest since May 2025, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
The repricing affects all assets that pay no yield, including Bitcoin. For gold, the $4,067 session low serves as near-term support. Investors now focus on upcoming data-jobs, inflation, consumer spending-that will confirm or challenge the September hike bet. Dip buyers have consistently emerged at lower levels, reflecting gold's resilience over the past year.