Global edible oil markets are under pressure as geopolitical unrest in the Middle East boosts expectations for biodiesel demand, while weak purchasing by major importers like India weighs on prices.
Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International and a leading analyst, said wartime market behavior remains unpredictable. Crude oil spiked to a near four-year high after Iran threatened attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, making vegetable oils more attractive for biofuel use.
Palm oil prices have surged 14% this month, exceeding 4,600 ringgit per ton-now pricier than soyoil outside Asia, where freight advantages help maintain competitiveness.
India, the world’s top vegetable oil importer, is holding back purchases amid elevated prices. Refiners await corrections, while many previously booked soyoil shipments from South America and the Black Sea were returned to suppliers due to unprofitable processing.
Limited import arrivals may support Indian prices, but strong mustard oil supplies from the upcoming winter crop are helping temper inflationary pressures.