The Iran conflict's impact on energy markets increases US recession odds for 2026 according to prediction markets.
Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts 20% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices up 50%. Energy costs exceeding $100 per barrel threaten US economic growth.
The Federal Reserve and Treasury face mounting pressure as LNG shortages continue. Yield curve inversions, rising unemployment, and negative GDP growth indicators could further elevate recession probabilities.
Thin market volumes suggest investor uncertainty. A YES share pays $1 if recession occurs in 2026, reflecting market belief in severe economic impact from current tensions.
Traders monitor Fed announcements and economic data releases for policy changes that will influence market sentiment.